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This is the most coherent guide to political organizing – on or off the Internet – penned in a generation - Al Giordano
Almost every Tuesday is primary day somewhere, it seems, and today Wyoming and Washington state get the honors.
The most hotly contested primary race of interest is the Republican race in Wyoming's at-large U.S. House district, where Republican Barbara Cubin's retirement has created an exciting open-seat race.
Orange to Blue Democrat Gary Trauner is the Democratic nominee, while four Republicans (two of them serious candidates) squared off for the nomination.
The GOP nomination, contested primarily between wealthy rancher Mark Gordon and Wyoming State Treasurer Cynthia Lummis, has apparently won by 9 points, 46% to 37%.
That's just fine for Trauner, as he won't have to face Gordon's self-funding capabilities ($1 million of his $1.2 million raised was out of pocket), nor his favorable profile (seems to be a good fit for Wyoming, as a rancher).
Lummis has won statewide office before, it is true. But she also has a longstanding feud with popular Democratic Governor Dave Freudenthal, which may spur the Governor to campaign harder for Trauner this cycle than he did during Trauner's narrow 2006 loss.
As mcjoan noted earlier, this was an exceptionally ugly primary, and there may well be bad blood between Lummis' supporters, and Gordon's, for several months. Also, both GOP candidates have dumped their financial resources into this race, while Trauner, running unopposed, sits on a nice nest egg of $660,000.
Meanwhile, it is also primary day in Washington State, and the inaugural primary for their "top two" system. This is somewhat similar to Louisiana's old "jungle primary" in that the top two finishers advance to the general, regardless of party. However, unlike the jungle primary, you can't win the whole thing by getting 50% on election day; it is a real primary election.
There are no real competitive primaries at the federal level in Washington state this time out, so this is essentially a beauty contest for general-election candidates. Turnout is expected to be high for a primary in Washington, due to their mail-in ballot system. As such, some were touting the Washington primaries as a preview of the general election matchups between Governor Christine Gregoire and her Republican opponent Dino Rossi, and between Republican Rep. Dave Reichert and his opponent, Orange to Blue Democrat Darcy Burner.
If they are previews of the general, however, we haven't learned anything we didn't know before; both election are going to be very close.
Gregoire is currently edging Rossi, 48% to 46%. She will likely finish the night with a slim lead as well.
Meanwhile, Burner trails Reichert, 47% to 44%, as of last note. However, the total Democratic vote in WA-08 currently exceeds 50%, which is good news.
Given the vagaries of the mail-in system, it's unlikely that results will be official until tomorrow or even Thursday. So good night to you all; we will post the percentages for WA-Gov and WA-08 as soon as we can.
Tonight's Rescue Ranger streetcar riders are yashua, vcmvo2, jennyjem, dopper0189, dadanation, and jlms qkw, with YatPundit at the motorman's controls of the 1923-vintage Perley A. Thomas Editmobile.
wecouldbefamous ominously notes how the education reconstruction plan for New Orleans ends up permanently "shrinking" the footprint of the city itself in Neoliberalism Amok In Plan For New Orleans Schools. (vcmvo2)
In a victory for equality, Dirk McQuigley writes about a recent court decision ruling that a doctor has to treat gay people the same way as straight people.Cal Supreme Ct rules MD violated rights of gay patient. Nondiscrimination--what a novel concept! (dopper0189)
Patriot Daily News Clearinghouse illustrates that McCain is not telling the truth about his "support" for renewable energy sources in McCain's Wind Energy Double-Talk Express. (vcmvo2)
Paul Anderson details a more appropriate (and frightening) frame of reference for the Republican Party's presumptive presidential candidate in McBush? What about McNixon?. (dadanation)
Announcing a running mate via text messages is only the latest indication that the Obama campaign is really the first 21st century campaign in American politics. Not only is it an absolutely brilliant way to have active voters volunteer what is probably their most reliable contact info (you can gloss over an email, ignore a call via caller ID, but text messages cry out to be read), but it also provides the campaign with an immediate way of contacting (read: mobilizing) thousands of voters in an instant.
That said, using a new medium to make the announcement raises questions. A friend writes via email:
So what do you all think the text message will be? Will it be quick and easy: "Biden" or text-hip: "BO <3 Kaine" or more formal: "Barack chooses Sen. Evan Bayh (IN) as VP"</p>
As we stand on the eve of the real election season, two new national polls today (LA Times/Bloomberg and Q-poll) along with the daily trackers (Rasmussen and Gallup) continue to show a tight race with a small Obama lead.
This poll shows the most movement, with the last polling in June.
The latest Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll shows that Obama, the first black major-party nominee, may have defused the issue of race, particularly among independents who will form a crucial voting bloc in the November election...
The deteriorating economy and rising energy costs "have been major issues for so long and voters blame the Republicans and George Bush for the problems," says Susan Pinkus, the Los Angeles Times polling director. Still, Pinkus says, McCain has benefited from voters' concerns about Obama's experience and ability to handle an international crisis.
Note that when this poll had Obama up by 12 in June, it was dismissed as an outlier along with the equally volatile Newsweek poll. Today's numbers are consistent what other polls show (see rest of post.) According to the news article, Obama still benefits from increased D enthusiasm. The LA Times version speculates on McCain negative attacks because Obama's fav/unfav now resemble McCain's. OTOH,
The poll found that McCain, long an unpopular figure among conservatives, has had more success than Obama in rallying his party's base. Nine out of 10 Republicans favor McCain, while just under 8 in 10 Democrats support Obama.
But independents, who could wind up deciding the election, favor Obama, 47% to 36%.
And Obama's backers are more enthusiastic than McCain's, suggesting that the Democrat holds greater potential for a strong turnout of supporters. The poll found that 78% of Obama's supporters were enthusiastic about his candidacy; 61% of McCain's backers felt that way.
Bottom line is that, like in other polls, the GOP base has consolidated while the Dem base, while more enthusiastic, has not. Obama has room to move up, but it'll take work to get there. And then there are the conventions, which, based on these numbers, come at the right time for Obama. How much upward room there is for McCain remains unclear, based on what is a poor showing amongst indies (Obama favored by 11) and the stated 9 in 10 GOP voters picking McCain. In all the polls, base support is a major difference between the candidates, though I haven't seen the cross-tabs or the exact figures (or the party ID numbers, for that matter.) But if indies favor Obama by that much, he's in decent shape.
In the presidential matchup, McCain leads 46 - 41 percent among men, up from 47 - 44 percent July 15, and 48 - 40 percent among white voters, compared to 49 - 42 percent last month. He also leads 65 - 25 percent among white Evangelical Christians, up from 61 - 29 percent.
But Obama leads 53 - 39 percent among women, compared to 55 - 36 percent last month, and 94 - 4 percent among black voters. The Democrat leads 55 - 36 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old, compared to 63 - 31 percent last month. Obama's strength among voters 35 to 54 is up from 48 - 44 percent to 49 - 41 percent. McCain leads 47 - 40 percent among voters over 55, compared to a 45 - 44 percent split July 15.
Independent voters shift from a 44 - 44 percent split to a 45 - 39 percent Democratic tilt.
"The poll underlines Sen. Barack Obama's strengths and weaknesses. Strengths: He leads overall and he's strong with women, even stronger among young folks and astronomically strong with blacks. Weaknesses: Sen. John McCain beats him among white voters, men, older folks and white Catholics," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
Also, theGallup tracker has Obama 45 and McCain 44 (RV) while Rasmussen has Obama 47, McCain 45 (LV, with leaners).
With the VP choices and conventions about to start, the polls reflect the state of the race as of now. As of now, Obama as a tightening but small lead. And as of now is about to change. Maybe McCain will figure out how to get above 44% (or, for a change, lead.) Maybe Obama will finish consolidating wavering Dems and shore up his standing with the senior set.
We shall see in the next two weeks. Since polling over Labor Day is tough, the first helpful polls will be right after that. But if you want to look at historical VP bounces while you await the VP choices, try this recent post by Mark Blumenthal.
He and Richardson can now fight over secretary of state.
So who's left? Assuming slotted speakers at the DNC are not the Veep, then Kaine is out. He's speaking Thursday night before Gore and Obama. Kerry is speaking Wednesday.
Who's that leave? Daschle, Sebelius, and "dark horse".
Of course, slotted speakers can always be rescheduled...
Having once been the happy owner of a 13.75% mortgage -- obtained through a state program for first time home buyers at a time when the bank was advertising 18% -- the inflation rate of the early 1980s is not something for which I'm nostalgic. But for those longing to bring back the days of Ronald Reagan, this should warm those cockles.
U.S. wholesale prices took another unexpectedly steep jump in July and shot up at the fastest year-on-year rate in 27 years, according to a government report on Tuesday that was certain to fan fears about a potential surge in inflation. ... The Labor Department's Producer Price Index, which measures prices at the factory door, climbed 1.2 percent after a 1.8 percent gain in June.
"Core" inflation, for those people who don't use energy or eat food, was also up sharply, while home building took another plunge. The decline in gas prices next month will probably cool things down a bit, which is good, because if we continued at an average of the last two months we'd be looking at an 18% annual rate.
But be of good cheer! So far wages aren't coming close to keeping up with this new round of inflation, so that traditional "price-wage-price" spiral is only "price-price-price." That's better, right?
Just in time for the closing rush of the presidential election, MSNBC is shaking up its prime-time programming lineup, removing the long-time host –- and one-time general manager of the network — Dan Abrams from his 9 p.m. program and replacing him with Rachel Maddow, who has emerged as a favored political commentator for the all-news cable channel.
The moves, which were confirmed by MSNBC executives Tuesday, are expected to be finalized by Wednesday, with Mr. Abrams’s last program on Thursday. After MSNBC’s extensive coverage of the two political conventions during the next two weeks, Ms. Maddow will begin her program on Sept. 8.
Her show will follow Olbermann's, and a HUGE congratulations to one of the smartest voices on cable land. The Olbermann-Maddow 1-2 punch will be potent. Now, if we could get a decent lead-in for Olbermann, we'd have a serious block of programming on our hands.
Landrieu has been up on the air the last several weeks, pounding the crap out of Kennedy, and the results are pretty obvious. Remember, this is the GOP's only chance to pick up a Senate seat this year. And their one and only chance is currently a 16-point deficit. Yup, it's one of those years for those guys.
I mean, this is where this race ranks, per Rasmussen's latest polling:
State Incumbent Margin over challenger
NM Open (R) -26
VA Open (R) -21
AK Stevens (R) -13
CO Open (R) -8
NH Sununu (R) -6
GA Chambliss (R) +6
OR Smith (R) +6
MN Coleman (R) +7
MS Wicker (R) +9
KY McConnell (R) +10
NC Dole (R) +11
TX Cornyn (R) +11
ME Collins (R) +15
LA Landrieu (D) +16
Rasmussen hasn't polled the Idaho or Oklahoma Senate races, or we probably would've seen both those states tighter than Louisiana. But per Rasmussen polling alone, there are 13 Senate races tighter than the Louisiana one. (South Dakota, their other supposed target, puts Republicans at a 25-point disadvantage against Democratic incumbent Tim Johnson.)
NC-Sen: Kay Hagan is out with her second TV ad of the cycle:
Hagan is trying to close a relatively narrow gap between herself and incumbent Sen. Elizabeth Dole. Polling was tight prior to Dole's June ad blitz, and has seemed to trend slightly up for Hagan in recent weeks as she herself has hit the airwaves. Another positive bio ad such as this one should help the state Senator improve her statewide profile as the general election heats up.
CO-Sen: The DSCC can't get enough of "big oil" ads, it seems. Here's their latest, against Colorado Senate candidate Bob Schaffer:
Meanwhile, the infamous Freedom's Watch is taking to the airwaves themselves, attacking Schaffer's Democratic opponent, Rep. Mark Udall.
Freedom’s Watch, a conservative advocacy group, launched ads Tuesday in Colorado hitting the Democratic Senate nominee, Rep. Mark Udall, for missing a key vote last month on energy policy to attend a fundraiser back home.
The 30-second ad, with amusing graphics and whimsical music, shows gasoline prices rising as a narrator refers to the Congressman as "Skip Udall."
Tim Pearson, deputy communications director for Freedom’s Watch, said the ad buy was "substantial," though he declined to provide specifics. It is airing in the Denver, Colorado Springs and Grand Junction media markets.
The IE buys are only going to get bigger and more frequent over the next few months, on both sides.
AK-Sen: Guess what! Ted Stevens thinks he's above the law!
In 1989, Congress amended the Ethics In Government Act of 1978 to require members of Congress to file financial disclosure reports including income and honoraria exceeding $200. The bill gave the Attorney General the authority to take action against anyone who falsifies the financial disclosure report. Stevens joined the rest of the Senate in a voice vote in favor of the legislation.
Either he's forgotten about this law he supported...or he just doesn't care, now that it's applied to him. As he is trying to get his case thrown out of court:
Last week, lawyers for Senator Ted Stevens filed several motions asserting that Senators are above the law and deserve special treatment. Specifically, the defense explained that since the Department of Justice is part of the executive branch, they cannot investigate Stevens or interview his staff since they are part of the legislative branch. Stevens’ attorneys went as far to say that only Congress can discipline a Senator who violates the law by lying on the financial disclosure forms. However, Stevens voted for the legislation which established the financial disclosure forms. In essence, Stevens’ defense is that legislation he supported is now unconstitutional, and therefore the case should be dismissed.
This is not altogether surprising really. If Stevens had any respect for the rule of law, he wouldn't be in this nasty situation to begin with.
ME-Sen: Down East has a new article on the state of the Maine Senate race. In general, it's a sober analysis of what looks to be a pretty tough, though viable, race for Democratic Rep. Tom Allen, who faces off against incumbent Sen. Susan Collins.
Allen starts at a disadvantage in name recognition, polling and money (though the DSCC has committed a great deal of money to this race, which should even the financial playing field somewhat). That said, Allen is quoted one major advantage: his ground game.
The grassroots is the only area where Allen has an undisputed edge in this race. The Democratic Party has 29 offices open across the state, with more opening every week, and has a dedicated and energized volunteer base, due in part to the excitement caused by Barack Obama's presidential campaign. The Republican Party has just four offices and many fewer volunteers.
The Democrats are working on registering thousands of new voters and making sure they get to the polls, an effort that could shift the political landscape in the Senate race. However, with less competitive races in Maine for president and for the other congressional seats, which democrats will likely win, Maine's ticket-splitting voters may choose to make Collins the one Republican they support. In the latest poll, 29% of Democratic voters abandoned Allen.
It's likely that there will be at least a decent number of ticket splitters this fall in Maine, but
House Races
FL-24: Republican Rep. Tom Feeney must be awfully nervous about his electoral prospects against former Democratic state Rep. Suzanne Kosmas.
Because Feeney has paid for robocalls across the district in support of Kosmas' primary opponent, fellow Democrat and 2006 loser Clint Curtis.
The third-term lawmaker from Oviedo -– who defeated Curtis in 2006 -– has paid for "tens of thousands" of robo-calls to Democratic voters on behalf of Curtis, who is running again for the House District 24 seat, this time as an underdog in the Democratic primary against former state lawmaker Suzanne Kosmas.
In calls to Central Florida residents, a volunteer for the Feeney campaign lauds Curtis and calls him the "only Democrat taking on Tom Feeney that has consistently opposed the war in Iraq." At the end of the call, the female volunteer said the calls were "paid for by Tom Feeney for Congress."
This isn't the first time that Feeney has tried to help a challenger. In a release sent a few weeks ago, Feeney touted independent candidate Gaurav Bhola as "the only candidate talking sense" at a candidate debate that Feeney never attended.
A clip of the robo call was provided by the Kosmas campaign. Paul Dunn, her campaign manager, called it one of Feeney’s "dirty tricks" and said it was proof that Feeney fears Kosmas, who has more money on hand than the incumbent.
Yes, I think it's safe to say that Feeney's running scared. Given that he's mucking about in Democratic primaries, you know.
Fortunately, given Curtis' bankroll of $7,000, it's highly unlikely Feeney will get his wish.
TX-07: Democrat Michael Skelly's newest ad:
OH-02: Daredevil Jean Schmidt's latest scandal: she and her sisters own a multi-million dollar property in Cincinnati, via their late father's real estate company, on which they pay all of $95 per year in property taxes.
For how come? Because they grow a few thousand dollars' worth of soybeans on the property. The property isn't primarily used as farmland...but naming it as such saves them a boatload, it seems:
The Schmidt campaign vehemently denies any wrongdoing (they do pretty much everything vehemently, in fact), and legally, they're almost certainly covered. Still, as the video notes, it sure doesn't look good.
NY-26: Finally, the first ad from Orange to Blue candidate Jon Powers:
And not a moment too soon for Wyoming voters who have been subjected to one damned ugly Republican battle. There are four names on the Republican primary ballot today, but the battle is between just two of them: Mark Gordon, a rancher and businessman, and Cynthia Lummis, former state representative and state treasurer.
The going got ugly in the race months ago, when an anonymous flier started circulating around the state that detailed Gordon's past contributions to Democratic candidates and his past membership on the board of the Sierra Club. A follow up flier released by the Lummis campaign echoes the charge.
Lummis' flier notes Gordon was a board member of the Sierra Club and describes the group as a "left-wing environmental organization" that opposed a coal-fired power plant in the Gillette area.
"As a member of the Sierra Club board, Mark Gordon helped them! Just what kind of Republican is he?" read the Lummis flier.
Not to be outdone, Gordon has gone on tv with his own nasty ad.
"When you find yourself in a hole, you stop digging," says the voice over the image of the digging girl, whose blond hair resembles Lummis'. "Career politicians like Cynthia Lummis just don't get it. She voted to increase taxes on gasoline, supported raising taxes to balance the state budget and opposed tax relief for veterans.
"Cynthia Lummis will dig a deeper hole, not get us out of the one we're already in."
Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, Orange to Blue candidate Gary Trauner is unopposed, and he's kept up his grassroots, retail campaign. He's just completed a state-wide trip, having gone to all 23 county fairs. He's likely to see some dividend from this very ugly Republican battle.
Oliver Walter, Arts and Sciences dean at the University of Wyoming and a political science professor, said the ultimate beneficiary of the negative Republican campaigning might be neither Gordon nor Lummis, but Gary Trauner.
"The more contention, the greater chance he has," Walter said Tuesday.
Professor Walter isn't the only one who thinks so. The editorial board of the Casper Star-Tribune seems to be really wanting to root for the Republicans in November, but can't help saying
At a time when the economy is in a downturn, the country still doesn't have a national energy policy, and we're mired in a war in Iraq, aren't there more relevant issues to discuss?....
[W]e'd like to remind both candidates that it's their party's nomination they're seeking, and Republicans already have their work cut out for them in the general election. Democrat Gary Trauner, who lost to incumbent Rep. Barbara Cubin by only about 1,000 votes in 2006, doesn't face any opposition in this year's primary. He's effectively been running for the office for four years, and he has built a solid campaign network.
Trauner also has an advantage over his eventual GOP opponent: He'll be a member of the majority party in the House. A freshman in the minority party won't be operating from a position of strength.
Gary has a lot of advantages over his eventual GOP opponent. Whether it's Gordon or Lummis (or maybe one of two the dark horses on the ballot who benefit from the Lummis/Gordon death spiral) Trauner faces in November, he's got a strong grassroots army and the fundraising to show for it.
Gary Trauner, Democratic candidate for U.S. House, has raised more than $1 million so far in the election cycle and will carry more than $660,000 into the general election.... Trauner said the totals show his message is resonating with Wyoming voters.
"The grassroots is excited about my race," he said. "We have orders of magnitude more Wyoming contributors than the entire other side combined, so clearly people believe in what we are trying to do."...
Republican candidate Cynthia Lummis infused her campaign with an additional $50,000 in personal funds Aug. 4, after filing her pre-primary campaign finance report. Lummis detailed the donation in an addendum to that report. Lummis raised about $110,000 in the last month, including her own contributions, and about $480,000 for the election cycle. She carries about $220,000 into the final week of the race for the Republican nomination....
Republican Mark Gordon of Buffalo kicked an additional $60,000 into his campaign Wednesday, according to an addendum filed with the Federal Election Commission, bringing his total contributions to his campaign to almost $1.1 million. Gordon has raised about $1.2 million and is carrying a little less than $200,000 into the final week of the primary....
Actually, that "raised" figure for Gordon should be clarified--he has self-funded to the tune of more than $1 million in this primary, and Lummis about $67K. So if you can judge enthusiasm in Wyoming by where the people are putting their money, Trauner is in good shape for November. That, combined with the baseline poll Research 2000 conducted in May, means that Dick Cheney's old seat could most definitely be in danger of turning Blue.
Bill Donahue has quite the racket -- he creates an organization with the name "Catholic" on it without any sanction from the Vatican, then he claims to speak for all Catholics. And the media gives him attention! But sometimes, he overextends himself.
Okay, I admit it. I had to read this twice before I got the joke. And then, I laughed and laughed and laughed.
AK-Sen: Ted Stevens' new defense: he's above the law. I wonder how a judge will treat that claim.
Everyone has veep scoops! Too bad none of the names match. We've got Kaine, Biden, Sebelius, Reed, Dodd and Daschle.
Gore will speak Thursday at the convention, at Invesco Field.
One smart publisher seems to have devised a way of easing the pain for the millionaire bestseller writer. They have posted an advert on the listing site, Craig's List, inviting a team of part-time workers to fake the signatures and get paid in cash for the privilege.
The advert says it is looking for 14 people who can do a blitz of false autograph signing on behalf of two unnamed co-authors of a newly released, and equally anonymous, book. "You will need to be able to copy the look and style of both author's signatures," it says.
If it’s true that the venue for this announcement will be Ohio, that in and of itself could be telling. Former Ohio Rep. Rob Portman has often been mentioned in conjunction with McCain’s short list and he would, perhaps, make Ohio a little more competitive for McCain than it’s already going to be. Portman also represented Ohio’s second congressional district — the second most Republican district in Ohio — which is not that far from Dayton. Moreover, the fact that we received the news about McCain’s announcement from the chairman of the Hamilton County Republican Party rather than the Montgomery County Republican Party is very telling; Dayton is in Montgomery County, but Rob Portman is in Hamilton County.
McCain is hoping to steal some of Obama's convention-related glow with his veep announcement a week from Friday. If he picks a no-name like Portman, that strategy won't be half as effective. I'm certainly rooting for Portman, Bush's choice for McCain's veep:
Choosing Portman will mean that John McCain has accepted that he is running for President Bush’s third term. Robert Novak reported in February that Portman’s name was floated as running mate material by the Bush political team, effectively making him Bush’s choice of running mate. Portman is irrevocably tied to President Bush’s massive deficit and to the fiasco that has been "free trade" under the Bush administration. A look at Portman’s On the Issues profile demonstrates that he has been in lockstep not merely with the Republican Party in general, but with the Bush administration specifically. (See, for example, his positions on illegal immigration, out of step with most Republicans but perfectly in sync with Bush).
He will leave office with the country $10 trillion in debt, fighting two wars, our international reputation in shambles, our government cloaked in secrecy and suspicion that his entire presidency has been a litany of broken laws and promises, our citizens' faith in our own country ripped to shreds. Yet Bush goes bumbling along, grinning and spewing moronic one-liners, as though nobody understands what a colossal failure he has been.
I fear to the depth of my being that John McCain is just like him.
(DemFromCT)
Jonathan Cohn at TNR writes about the Democratic platform on health care... and its implications for an Obama Presidency.
Most striking of all, perhaps, is the sheer amount of attention--and apparent priority--health care gets in the platform. Health care is the first policy issue the document takes up in depth. No other platform in recent memory dealt with health care so prominently--or in such detail. Even in 1992, the last
year in which a Democratic nominee seriously proposed universal coverage, the platform relegated health care to lesser status: It appeared ninth in a long list of measures to improve economic security. Priorities like deficit reduction, public investment, and agriculture all came before it.
In the 288 highly readable and very engaging pages of Taking on the System, which is released tomorrow, Markos lays out his eight rules for achieving progressive change within today's digital world. Far from just being a book for a bloggers, about bloggers, by a blogger, this is a book that is relevant far beyond the Netroots, or even the expressly political realm. It is a book that folks who don't spend hours a day on sites like MyDD or Talking Points Memo or Daily Kos can read, understand and thoroughly enjoy. Markos goes to great lengths to relate developments within society -- for instance the new open source ways in which new albums are reaching consumers, overturning some of the notions of unchecked and uncheckable powers of the gatekeepers in the music industry -- to changes within the political system that likewise have the capacity to make the country more democratic.
I've had all of these concerns kicking around in my head over the past week or two as I tried to figure out how to write a critical but basically polite review. Markos has been a very ally, and Taking On The System isn't a bad book.
It wasn't until Rod Parsley's shop went after me that I really got it, though. Because the moment I tried to figure out how to respond to his bullying, I reached for Taking On The System to help me devise a strategy.
That's when the lightbulb went on. Markos didn't write a book on political science; he wrote a damn cookbook. And you don't look to a cookbook for theory. You look to it for recipes.
Taking On The System provides exactly that: recipes for winning political strategies. To push the metaphor just a little too far, the stories Markos sprinkles throughout the book are like illustrations of the many savory - and some sour - tastes to be created in his virtual kitchen.
I'm not going to link it directly, but via Boing Boing, one Michael Goldfarb is making the case that progressives who read Daily Kos are like tweeners playing Dungeons & Dragons in mom's basement. Now, the knee jerk reaction here would be to state "But I'm not playing D & D in my mother's basement!" But you know what? I'm not going to play that role and I'm not going to be nice.
Mr. Goldfarb was one of the originalPNAC boys, the lovable neoconservative guys and gals who dreamed up and then whined for an invasion of Iraq starting in the late 1990s, claiming it would be decisive, quick, cheap, and easy. If that sounds familiar, it's because these are the very same opportunistic assholes who used a bogus WMD threat to stampede a spooked nation into their cherished war on Iraq in the traumatic aftermath of 9-11. When the wheels fell off their experiment and it ground to a brutal halt on the streets of reality, true to neocon form, they scattered and ran hitherto, pointing fingers at the CIA, the Democrats, blaming anyone and everyone else for their giant, massive, bloody Baghdad fuck-up, once it became clear what a colossal fuck up it was.
Mr. Goldfarb, please accept this with all the venom and hostility you can conceive of: D & D players don't scare me. They hang out quietly in dorm rooms and apartments playing their RP game hurting no one. You and your friends at PNAC on the other hand stand guilty of practicing gross fatal global negligence to a degree so grotesque I would not have thought it possible in this modern nation. You and your friends started a war you cannot finish, now you blame it on those who warned against it, you did this at a cost to date of over four thousand US soldiers' lives and growing every week, tens of thousands wounded, a hundred thousand or more dead, innocent Iraqi civilians1; all bought and paid for by almost one-trillion US tax dollars. You started this bloody cluster-fuck against the wrong nation and, in the process, helped allow the masterminds of 9-11 get away scot free.
Mr. Goldfarb, Mission Accomplished, sir.
Better to play D & D well as an adolescent, than play a shitty game of Risk as an adult. Yes, you played Risk, Mr. Goldfarb, only you played with real blood and guts, just not of course, your own. You played Risk, Mr. Goldfarb, you mendacious twit, and you play it poorly, and you have lost. May whatever deity you worship have mercy on what's left of your rotten soul.
Reversing course, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is planning energy legislation that may allow oil and gas drilling in new areas off the U. S. coast, according to a House Democratic leadership aide.
If any doubt remained that the debate over energy has shifted in Republicans’ favor, Rep. Mark Udall (D-Colo.) ended it this week.
Udall, one of the House’s preeminent environmentalists and the Democratic nominee in a closely contested Colorado Senate race, came out in favor of a bipartisan, comprehensive energy plan that would permit additional offshore drilling — a striking departure from his past opposition to such measures.
And it's probably not just Udall. To tell you the truth, I didn't even look to see who else might be doing the same thing. Because even if it is just Udall for the moment, it won't be just Udall for long.
Why not? What's behind the opening of the floodgates?
Republicans have an ace up their sleeve. The ban on additional off-shore leases must be renewed each year by September 30. The extension is attached as a rider to the annual appropriations bill. Senator DeMint says 36 of the 49 Republican senators have signed a letter to Senate leaders opposing a renewal of the ban. Texas Rep. Jeb Hensarling is said to have gotten 136 House Republicans to sign a similar letter.
"Many people aren't aware that these bans on drilling must be renewed every year, and that all we have to do is to allow these prohibitions to expire on Oct. 1," DeMint said in a statement released Tuesday.
"In just 50 days, Americans will have the freedom to pursue their own energy resources here at home," he added. DeMint argued that it was "irrational to say 'no' to American energy" because it was needed to reduce independence on foreign oil and bring down gas prices.
That's the game, right there. The floodgates will open because they have to open. There's no way on God's green earth to find veto-proof majorities to re-up that ban, and no bill George W. Bush won't veto to stop it. Not a defense bill. Not a continuing resolution to keep the government running. Not a National Motherhood and Apple Pie Day bill. Nothing.
So it's either flip now and do what you can to save face, or stick it out to the bitter end and lose.
Visiting the other guy's home field, and holding his own, Obama was feisty today at the VFW in Orlando, FL. And like the Olympics obscuring the appearance at Saddleback, Tropical Storm Fay will distract a bit from Obama's remarks. From First Read:
Before McCain’s oil rig visit, Obama addresses the Veterans of Foreign Wars in Orlando, FL -- a day after McCain told the group about Obama’s "ambition to be president" and declared that "both candidates in this election pledge to end this war and bring our troops home. The great difference is that I intend to win it first." Per the campaign, Obama "will discuss his veterans policies and his commitment to continuing support for America’s service men and women after their deployments have ended." (Of course, whether Floridians will notice Obama in the state due to preparations for Fay is another story.) After that, he embarks on a two-and-a-half day economic bus tour through North Carolina and then Virginia.
But more importantly, the vet vote is the same as in 2004, and Gallup notes that the demographic of old white men is singularly skewed GOP.
McCain clearly holds an advantage over Obama among veterans, but that is probably due more to the fact that veterans tend to be Republicans than to the fact that McCain himself served in the military and is regarded by some as a war hero. Veterans showed similarly strong support for Bush in the 2004 presidential election. The data suggest there still is an effect of military service on candidate preference, but it is rather small and is overwhelmed by the effects of party affiliation.
Once again, Obama's task is not to 'win' over a GOP-oriented audience but to show up and be credible. That, he did. And that he keeps going to unfriendly audiences and holding his own is great news for when he actually has to be President of everyone.
In the run-up to the invasion of Iraq, I warned that war would fan the flames of extremism in the Middle East, create new centers of terrorism, and tie us down in a costly and open-ended occupation. Senator McCain predicted that we’d be greeted as liberators, and that the Iraqis would bear the cost of rebuilding through their bountiful oil revenues. For the good of our country, I wish he had been right, and I had been wrong. But that’s not what history shows.
Senator McCain now argues that despite these costly strategic errors, his judgment has been vindicated due to the results of the surge...
But understand what the essential argument was about. Before the surge, I argued that the long-term solution in Iraq is political – the Iraqi government must reconcile its differences and take responsibility for its future. That holds true today. We have lost over a thousand American lives and spent hundreds of billions of dollars since the surge began, but Iraq’s leaders still haven’t made hard compromises or substantial investments in rebuilding their country. Our military is badly overstretched – a fact that has surely been noted in capitals around the world. And while we pay a heavy price in Iraq – and Americans pay record prices at the pump – Iraq’s government is sitting on a $79 billion dollar budget surplus from windfall oil profits.
In the end, all these speeches and appearances have less to do with how people vote than party affiliation. As long as there are more Dems than Rs, Obama will do all right for himself, regardless of how these pre-season maneuverings go. But removing the caricature drawn by his opponent by showing up and addressing and engaging the audience is always a plus, and looking to see who gets more applause misses the point entirely.
In the really green part of Oregon, Gordon Smith has a long tradition of presenting himself as the moderate, anti-drilling, good guy. In fact, one of his infamous ads in which he tries to pretend he's been endorsed by Obama, trumpets
"Who says Gordon Smith helped lead the fight for better gas mileage and a cleaner environment? Barack Obama!"
Clean environment? Tell that to the Oregon Department of Environmental Equality, not to mention the folks in Weston, OR.
For the second time in about a year, wastewater from the frozen-foods plant owned and operated in Eastern Oregon by the family of U.S. Sen Gordon Smith (R-Ore.) overflowed into a nearby creek in violation of state environmental regulations....
Smith Frozen Foods has a long history of wastewater violations.... According to the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, an employee of Smith Frozen Foods contacted the state agency on July 29 (while the plant was processing corn) to report an overflow from the company's wastewater lagoon that "resulted in a milky discharge to Pine Creek."
...[T]he incident is considered a serious "Class 1" violation, meaning it "can harm aquatic life, contaminate drinking waters, and impair recreational, commercial and agricultural uses of water."...
On July 30, 2007, at the height of last year's corn season, Smith Frozen Foods had a similar violation. That violation resulted in a $3,000 fine — a small sum compared with the $25,000 DEQ fine in 1992 for another infraction. Between those two events, Smith Frozen Foods has been cited or fined by the DEQ more than a handful times.
After one of those fines in the early 1990s, Smith received $766,000 in state and federal grants to bring his plant into compliance with environmental regs. And then he had the gall to run his first, losing campaign against Wyden on "the principles of less government and unfettered free enterprise."
The most recent spill (there have been six or seven in the past 15 years) is hardly the same scope as the massive fish kill of 2002 that Smith helped engineer with Dick Cheney and Karl Rove, an environmental and economic disaster that killed over 60,000 fish, including naturally raised Chinook and endangered Coho salmon.
But it does put the lie to Smith's claim that he's a friend to the environment. And it's one of the reasons Oregon's environmental and conservation communities are lining up behind Jeff Merkley.
I'll never understand why 
